Dissident bomb campaign threat in Britain negligible

A LEADING Irish security expert and mainstream republicans have both expressed doubt over suggestions that dissident republicans are capable of attacking Britain.

The intelligence coincides with a high-level report published on Thursday which described the threat now posed by dissidents as ‘lethal’. The report was released by Alex Carlile, Britain’s independent reviewer of anti-terrorism laws.

In part it read: “The number of terrorism incidents in the North has increased, as has the evidence of the existence of determined and dangerous groups of dissident republicans, with the ability to manufacture and deploy lethal explosive devices.

“Their main targets appear to be the police and armed services. Unfortunately, one cannot exclude the possibility of dissident paramilitaries mounting terrorist attacks in Great Britain.”

However, the threat to Britain has been dismissed by senior intelligence sources within the security services and republican ranks.

“There has been an increase in activity. But to launch an attack on Britain is something beyond this group’s capabilities,” said the security expert.

“To get a device to Britain would be a very dangerous undertaking — one that would require a significant support base in both countries with trusted people operating on the fringes.

Transporting a device like that leaves a big trail and, from their point of view, there are easier targets to attack in the North.”

He added: “They have been operating close to the border in east Ulster. This is where they are comfortable. They haven’t the back-up or high-grade explosive to move beyond this region — militarily, they are very limited.”

Unusually, the intelligence was endorsed by a mainstream republican source who also spoke with The Irish Post and underlined the huge logistical problems of sustaining a bombing campaign in Britain.

The security expert, however, pointed to minor successes — described as subtle and disruptive — which have been scored by the dissidents.

“The police in the North are finding it difficult to respond to genuine callouts,” he said.

“They have to be sure they are not being set up. This has a very subtle effect on day-to-day policing. It is something that drives a wedge between security services and the public.”

The last dissident Irish Republican Army attack was in 2001, when a car bomb in Birmingham, central England, failed to detonate.